Without order nothing can exist - without chaos nothing can evolve Anon.
Vicious circles are not easy to grasp. Here is a method to detect them but first an example.
More “customer traffic” creates a longer “length of line.”
A longer “length of line” creates more “wait time.”
More “wait time” results in lower “service quality.” [Note “wait time,” compared to
“expected wait time,” determines “service quality.” The greater the “expected wait time,” the better the “service quality.”]
Lower “service quality” results in lower “perceived service quality” … after some delay.
That is, it takes us time to perceive that the service quality is lower.
After some delay (that is, after this happens to some people one or more times), less
“perceived service quality” results in less “customer traffic.”
Let's try to model that using a adapted version (system approach) to mind mapping. You should hate modeling, because models are wrong, but it will help you understand the rest of this book so stick with me. For this particular purpose I build a mash up between incredible machines, mind mapping, system dynamics and systems thinking. I suppose the real System Dynamics and Systems thinking will never gain the traction it deserves. It's to complicated and does not copy well. The meme plex is to prohibiting, if you know what a memeplex is. Every name starting with 'system' is frightening. Paradoxically, SD claims to make complicated things easier to understand. The critique is absolutely personal.
Mind mapping, on the other hand, creates a associates and freely classifies memes and use to grasp an overall picture. The many degrees of freedom made it very popular. Freedom helps easy spreading.
So I mashed everything up. Grind maps. A flawed copy of both, a child if you like. Laphroigh mixed with Soda pop. Let's see how they spread, huh? What it does in simple terms is this. It lets us model something like the mousetrap story. The question is can I design a better version of a mind map. One that enhances your understanding on what I'm thinking. A tool to help you understand my memeplex. We start with a simple mind map and ask ourselves does it help me understand? "Do you understand me?" is a selection process that helps make for better models. Just add a little variation to the pool. I was drunk, I had to.
Insert Mindmap customer traffic
Do we understand the relations between phenomena in the mind map?
Simple things
1. What causes what?
2. What influences what? Is that influence negative or positive?
3. Is it a build up, what contributes? For instance the water in a lake is the accumulation over time of the water flow into the lake minus the water flow out of the lake.
Now the really hard grind
4. Can we discern virtuous circle and vicious circles It’s when changes in one part of the system affect other parts of the system, which in turn affect the original part. Virtuous cycles produce unintended benefits and vicious cycles produce unintended harms. Easy to say, hard to see.
5. What are emergent properties of the system?
How to detect an emergent property.
In this example we started with more “customer traffic” and completed the loop with less “customer traffic.” The diagram’s “story” can also be told in the opposite sense, starting with less “customer traffic,” etc., and ending with more “customer traffic.”
This diagram shows that “customer traffic” increases until “wait time” equals the “expected wait time.” If “wait time” increases above the “expected wait time,” the influence will cause “customer traffic” to fall back to a level where “wait time” equals “expected wait time” … and perhaps then oscillate about that level (… the oscillation could be damped or undamped).
In the case of a reinforcing loop, going around the entire loop produces an action in the same direction as the original action … it produces an increasing or decreasing response (an increasing feedback example is the squeal of sound system feedback).
In many parts of economics there is an assumption that a complex system of determinants will tend to lead to a state of equilibrium.... – when the co-production, causality loop, or positive feedback produces a desirable effect, systems change is described as a virtuous circle; when they produce an undesirable effect, systems change is described as a vicious cycle. Because these concepts refer to variables interacting in a complex system, they all produce unintended consequences
Although such consequences are unintended in the sense that no actor deliberately intends for them to occur, unintended consequences are an expected emergent property of systems change
1. A bath tub is something to keep stuff in
.
2. A pipe transports stuff to a bath tub.
==============
3. A pump in or decreases the flow of stuff in pipes into bathtubs.
4. A electrical wire is used to give signals through the system. The nervous system if you like.
Tags:
Share
-
▶ Reply to This